瑞士信贷：美国环保设备行业研究报告2009年4月

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Environmental Services
INITIATION
A Defensive Place To Hide
■
We are initiating coverage of the environmental services sector with an
Overweight sector stance. Our ratings are: Waste Connections, Republic
Services, and Waste Management, Outperform; Clean Harbors, and
Covanta Energy, Neutral.
■
Waste is still defensive, pricing discipline is intact and expectations are low.
Our Overweight is based on the following:
o (1) free cash flow will likely remain strong (upwards of an 8%
yield) as cost cuts and pricing flow to the bottom line (a decent
part of the earnings hit for waste names are noncash items),
o (2) expectations are low (consensus numbers appear to
already be building in adequate volume declines);
o (3) balance sheets and liquidity remain healthy; and
o (4) Some names will actually grow out of the downturn.
■
Based on our proprietary waste sales index and channel checks (survey of
waste operators), we expect volume to remain negative through 2009 (8%
on average) and bottom sometime in 2010.
■
What would make us more positive or negative? We’re on watch for:
o Sequentially better or worse price volume trends out of the
majors and private operators
o Further consolidation among mid sized private operators and
the majors
■
We prefer playing the following themes in waste:
o Companies that have a strong record of achieving above cost
of capital returns and can take advantage of asset valuations
coming off in waste and grow acquisitively. Waste
Management and Waste Connections stack up best.
o Companies with lower than expected volume declines vs peers
such as Waste Connections where consensus numbers may
have to move up.
o Stocks trading at trough multiples where the market is baking
in the worst case scenario where we think you could see an
upside surprise due to near term catalysts (such as hitting
synergy targets). Republic stacks up best.
Table of Contents
Investment Summary 4
Our Price Volume Assumptions Appear Conservative 4
So why is Pricing going to be 2% and not zero with volume declines? 5
60-65% of Landfill Capacity is Owned By the Two Largest Waste Companies 5
The Small and Mid Sized Private Waste Companies are Hurting from the Downturn 6
Management Compensation Plans Tied to Getting Pricing 7
Local Governments Have Incentive To Also Raise Disposal Pricing 7
Waste Stocks Are Still Defensive With Strong Cash Flows 7
Market Expectations Are Low 8
When to own waste companies? 8
Long term investors can buy waste now 9
Company Investment Case Summaries 10
The Economics of Waste and Key Drivers 15
Volumes 15
Pricing 17
Proprietary Economic Model Estimating Waste Sales Growth 19
Industry Overview 24
Revenue by Line of Business 27
Collection Services 27
Residential 27
Commercial/Industrial 27
Disposal Services 29
Alternative Methods of Waste Disposal 30
Recycling 30
Waste to Energy 33
Hazardous Waste 35
Regulation 37
The Impact of Subtitle D 37
Key Accounting and Tax Issues 39
Landfill Accounting 39
Accounting Charges Related to Purchase Accounting 39
Republic Tax Matters 39
Multiemployer Pension Plans 40
Risks 41
Valuation Methodology 43
Normalized Earnings 43
Republic Services- A “Show Me” Story 44
Investment Summary 45
Business Overview 49
Collection 50
Transfer and Disposal 51
Other Revenue—Recycling 52
Management and the Board 53
Valuation 54
Return on Capital 57
Balance Sheet 57
Risks 57
Waste Management- The Market Leader 60
Investment Summary 61
Business Overview 64
Collection: 65
Landfills 66
Transfer 67
Recycling (WMRA Group) and Other 68
Waste to Energy (Wheelabrator) 69
Management and the Board 69
Valuation and Financials 70
Return on Capital 73
Balance Sheet 74
Risks 74
Waste Connections-The Growth Play in Waste 76
Investment Summary 77
Business Overview 82
Collection 82
Disposal and Transfer Services 84
Recycling and Other 86
Management and the Board 87
Valuation and Financials 88
Return on Capital 91
Balance sheet 92
Risks 92
Clean Harbors- The Hazardous Waste Leader 95
Investment Summary 96
Business Overview 99
Technical Services 100
Site Services 102
Management and the Board 103
Valuation and Financials 104
Return on Capital 107
Balance Sheet 108
Risks 108
Covanta- The Purest Play for Waste to Energy 111
Investment Summary 112
Business Overview 115
Domestic Operations 116
International Operations 119
Management and the Board 121
Valuation and Financials 122
Balance Sheet 126
Risks 126

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